Arthur J. Villasanta – Fourth Estate Contributor
New York, NY, United States (4E) – Trump’s trade war might see China lose as many as 5.5 million jobs and slow its growth by 1.3 percent at its worst, estimates JPMorgan Chase & Co. The trade war might cost China 700,000 jobs at minimum, said the firm.
JPMorgan said the massive job losses will come about if retaliations by the U.S. and China continue. These new job losses will be triggered by the U.S. going ahead with its threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. This might occur within the month..
Another factor will be China devaluing the yuan by five percent and imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Even if China doesn’t retaliate, three million Chinese might lose their jobs, said the report..
The study notes the trade war’s unfortunate timing. The spat comes at a time when China is grappling with slowing growth and a massive debt pile it wants to undo by containing the shadow banking industry.
JPMorgan estimates things will turn for the worse if the U.S. does impose 25 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates. These twin moves will mean 5.5 million lost jobs and 1.3 percentage points eliminated from China’s gross domestic product growth.
“If the U.S. further escalates the tariff war, the impact on China will be larger,” wrote JPMorgan.
Their report said that while the overall impact from the trade war thus far remains manageable, rising unemployment might become a major policy concern for Beijing because of its huge potential to trigger social unrest.
A sharp rise in unemployment will change Beijing’s policy reaction. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will be forced to devalue the yuan and take more policy easing measures to protect Chinese jobs.
A cheaper yuan will help China’s already economy weather the immense shock of a new round of U.S. tariffs. Devaluing the yuan by some 12 percent in 2019 will help offset the negative effects of the trade war on China’s GDP and narrow the net job losses to 0.9 million, said JPMorgan.
The downside to devaluing the yuan will be $332 billion in capital flight, or more than a tenth of China’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
Article – All Rights Reserved.
Provided by FeedSyndicate