Arthur J. Villasanta – Fourth Estate Contributor
Beijing, China (4E) – China said its retail sales and industrial output growth for November badly missed their targets, confirming that China’s economy continues to slow down amid Trump’s trade war.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that industrial output grew 5.4 percent year-on-year, the slowest pace in almost three years. This growth was also lower than the 5.9 percent analysts had predicted.
On the other hand, retail sales rose 8.1 percent, which is the weakest pace since 2003. This pace is also lower than the 8.8 percent analysts expected. November retail sales growth was down from 8.6 percent in October.
Fixed asset investment rose 5.9 percent from January to November, marginally higher than the 5.8 percent forecast by economists. FAI rose 5.7 percent from January to October.
Despite Trump’s trade war, data from China unexpectedly shows its economy on the upside for much of 2018. Manufacturing benefited from front-loading, or rushing to ship as much goods as possible, before tariff deadlines hit on Jan. 1, 2019.
The weaker Chinese data in November shows the positive impact of front-loading is beginning to vanish and that downward pressure on the Chinese economy is increasing, said RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong. Industrial output and retail sales data released on Friday were ugly, said the firm.
NBS said after the release of the data that the impact from bilateral trade tensions with the U.S. was not yet obvious. So, the worst is yet to come and policymakers will be very worried, particularly with consumption growth falling off a cliff.
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